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Allow Us To Explain

Less Sunspot Activity Is Not A Climate Change Fix

by Erin Podolak | 12:03 pm, June 16th, 2011

Recent reports presented at the American Astronomical Society meeting suggest that the sun may be heading into a period of less magnetic activity with fewer sunspots. Some proponents of this theory believe that the next solar minimum (a normal period of decreased solar activity) may be particularly long, lasting for several decades.

Analysis of a missing jet stream in the solar interior, fading sunspots on the sun’s visible surface, and changes in magnetic activity of the corona and near the poles suggest that an inactive period may be on the way. But the studies presented are a long way off from receiving scientific consensus. In fact, as Andrew Revkin of Dot Earth points out, there those in the astronomical community who think the evidence presented does not necessarily lead to the conclusion that there will be a long solar minimum.

So then media reports of a solar minimum that would solve the climate change crisis, come as a bit of a surprise. The idea is that the lack of solar activity could propel Earth into the next “Little Ice Age” or even serve as a solution to global warming. There is some historical evidence of cooling events and solar activity decreases occurring at the same time, but the two types of events are not strongly correlated.

Established scientific evidence shows that reduced solar activity produces a cooling effect on Earth of less than 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit. Certainly not enough to fix our global warming woes, particularly considering that scientists aren’t even sure yet that we are entering a decades long solar minimum.

The period of time known as the Little Ice Age (more scientifically known as the Maunder Minimum) occured between the mid-17th and early 18th centuries, which is when the last decades long solar activity decrease took place. However, most of the cooling associated with the Little Ice Age is believed to have been caused by high volcanic activity, not the lack of activity on the sun’s surface. But that hasn’t stopped the Little Ice Age comparisons.

Research published in Geophysical Research Letters in 2010 directly addresses the question of the effects on climate of a decades long solar minimum, and comes to the conclusion that solar minimum or no solar minimum the Earth is going to continue to get hotter. Against the backdrop of the 5-7 degrees Fahrenheit of warming predicted by the International Panel on Climate Change by the end of the century, a 0.5 cooling effect by a possible solar minimum would have negligible effects.

Researchers also note that periods of diminished solar activity do end, so when the sun returns to activity any cooling effect would be negated. Regardless of the speculation about the effects of decreased solar activity on Earthly temperatures, it is important to remember that researchers have not reached a consensus about a possible solar minimum so this is one story where people will just have to stay tuned. Just don’t expect a quick fix for climate change.

(via Wired, photo via NASA Goddard Flickr)

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_ZPY4SFKFUBSYQM7XUD5BWLELLI Cliff

    Can I finally mow my lawn with a gasoline powered lawnmower or will it keep killing polar bears, even if there are more icebergs for them to kill seals from?

  • Anonymous

    tinyurl.com/2a7usxg

  • Rob Pattison

    I seem to remember airplane flights being cancelled because of volcanic activity – and there is a correlation between cosmic rays intensity, sunspots and volcanic activity – so no one really knows what is going to happen – don’t throw away your woolly long johns yet!     
    Lewis

  • Anonymous

    tinyurl.com/2a7usxg

  • Anonymous

    tinyurl.com/2a7usxg

  • Anonymous

    tinyurl.com/2a7usxg

  • http://www.facebook.com/bradley.keyes Brad Keyes

    “Against the backdrop of the 5-7 degrees Fahrenheit of warming predicted by the International Panel on Climate Change by the end of the century…”
    Did you mean the Intergovernmental P.C.C. ?

  • Victor

    It will be interesting to see the reaction of those continually pointing to “the science” and how all the “denyers” are unwilling to accept scientific findings. When we see knee-jerk reactions like this one, it becomes clear that ”the science” isn’t really the issue after all. Real scientists will want to look into this matter more deeply, in the hope that global warming could be eliminated or ameliorated by solar cooling. For ideologues, however, it will be yet another distraction to be explained away.

    As I see it, what is needed most in this context is a little more humility in the face of the unknown and a whole lot less hubris. There are a great many factors that affect climate and climate change, from sunspot activity to, as you yourself note, volcanic activity. To claim on the basis of “the science” that we can predict, in the face of all the many unknowns, what sort of climactic conditions will exist on Earth in 100 years, is sheer arrogance.

  • SunnyvaleKen

    Of course a decrease in sunspot activity is not a fix for climate change.  That’s because there is nothing to fix.  If you want to believe, without evidence, that human activity has caused the climate to warm and change, believe it if you want.  You can believe the predictions of the global warming fear mongers because we live in a free society.  Some people even believed the rapture was coming this spring and now they believe it is coming this fall.

    I believe the climate is changing as it has for all the millions of years before now.  There is plenty of physical evidence for the link between low solar activity and cool or cold climate and there have been more periods than this article admits.

    We’re all along for the ride so we might as well enjoy it while we’re here.  Now I’m going to go barbeque some turkey thighs and enjoy the warm weather.

     

  • Anonymous

    Whose viewpoint carries more weight —  astro-physicists, glaciologists, marine biologists, paleo-climatologists, geologists, etc.  or an undocumented sCeptic?

    I choose to believe the conclusions and evidence based on  hundreds of papers produced by a multi-national, multi-ethnic, multi-ideological network of scientists.

  • nonsheeple

    You must be reffering to prestigious institutions of higher learning like East Aglia.  In case you are still wearing your foil hat to protect yourself from increased solar activity I will remind you that the staff of the aforementioned institute if higher education has admitted to fabricating much of its data in relation to man made global warming.  If you still think global warming is not a hoax then I suggest you follow Gore’s lead and start buying carbon credits (another hillarious hoax for the weak minded).  If Gore was so sure that this was a real global disaster why would he fly around in a personal jet and live in a huge power draining mansion.  I guess the burden of responsibilty rests on easily fooled and readily controlled sheeple.

  • Anonymous

    How did you twist my statement regarding thousands of scientists from every corner of the globe representing dozens of disciplines into the actions of a small handful of scientists representing one discipline?  And then you flat out lie about what these scientists supposedly did. And Gore is relevant how?

    You sir are uneducated.


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